Replay To-Do List

I recently started my prep work for my upcoming 1911 BBW replay, so let me see where I am at and what is left to be completed:

• Buy the 1911 disk and card set.
• Load the season disk into BBW, create my AL and NL organizations, and name the teams appropriately.
• Move all the players up from the farm team to the parent, just so I can see them all in one place.
• Scour the internet to see if I can find (free) PDF copies of the Spalding and/or Reach Baseball Guides for the season in question. Baseball-Reference.com (BBR) is my primary resource for data from any season, but it is always nice to be able to read the old Guides and catch a bit of the flavor of the times.
• Download the ATMgr lineup and transaction files from the ATMgr site.
• Download the 1911 batting, pitching, and fielding numbers from BBR and start my 1911 spreadsheet.
• Download the 1911 transaction, debuts, and retirements from BBR and add them to the 1911 spreadsheet.
• Add the ATMgr 1911 transactions and lineups to the 1911 spreadsheet.
• Massage the batting, pitching, and fielding numbers. Ensure the names are in the format I prefer, plus replace some raw numbers with their calculation (i.e., hits / at-bats to determine batting average).
• Massage the transaction, debut, and retirement numbers into a single tab in the spreadsheet. This means reducing each into a single common format. This format is the same as what the ATMgr transaction list uses, so then the ATMgr transaction list can then be merged into the larger transaction list as well.
• Now that all of the transaction data is in one place, go through every player and review their batting transaction log in BBR for that season. This is useful for identifying when exactly some players who, for instance, are sent down in May versus those that don’t make their season debut until September. The transaction list is updated to accurately account for the comings and goings of all these players.
• This will also point out when an otherwise full-time player suddenly misses a couple weeks of games, or, for instance, document exactly when a player who only misses twelve games all season has ten of those games appear all in one fell swoop.
• If there are large periods of time where a player doesn’t appear in a game that is not otherwise already accounted for, this absence (and return) is added to the transaction list. I try and do some research as to why a player might have unexplainably disappeared for, say, 40 games, but that information is not always available.
• This is also my first chance to see if the player names from BBW, BBR, and ATMgr all sync. For example, is the correct name to use "Joe Jackson" or "Shoeless Joe Jackson?" When in doubt, BBR is the tiebreaker.
• All of this transaction data coming in from multiple sources always results in duplicate data, but in the end, the data is culled and cleaned into my final version of the transaction list.
• Create and populate a tab in the spreadsheet that includes all of the Master Game symbols. This on ode to the old cardboard Master Game symbols list that the Game Company used to provide.
• Go through each player on the disk and massage identified data:
• Player last names were un-capitalized (except for Hall-of-Famers), and first names were changed to sync with BBR as needed
• J4/J3/J2's were all set to J1's, Q4/Q3/Q2's were all set to Q1's.
• Steal letters R/G/F/E were all changed to B, and D/C/B were all changed to A
• Stolen bases allowed and caught stealing's were added for all the catchers
• Create a Weighted Average pitching grade tab for both leagues. I don’t regrade my pitchers for revised sets (such as 1911), but it is nice to be able to compare the Weighted Average grades to the revised set grades.
• Create a week-per-season tab for every week and prepare a season snapshot table. BBR has the standings for each day of the season, so for every Sunday (my end of the week) I add the standings (wins and Losses) as well as the runs scored/runs allowed numbers so that when I am doing the replay I only have to add the replay half of the numbers. This allows me to contrast and compare where each team is performing relative to what they actually stood at the end of the same week.
• Set up the new blog for the 1911 replay.

 

That is what has been done already. What is left to do?

 

• Now that the player name's that are in sync between BBW and BBR, the ATMgr files still need to be brought in sync.
• Install the ATMgr files and finalize the season for gameplay.
• New stadium backdrops have been created, but they haven’t been tested to ensure they are ready for opening day.

There is one more step I am considering. There was a total of 4542 errors committed across both leagues (3.7 per game). In my previous replays, the same number of games, same general error number distribution, and same general fielding rating distribution, I have never gotten to 2000 total errors. For my 1901 replay all players had two error numbers and I gave a third error number to about half of the players, but even that only got me up to 2840 errors (2.6 per game), about half of the actual number of 5347 (4.8 per game).

 

It is my observation that the defensive ratings have been tamped down slightly in the 1911 set and that by itself might get me over the 2000 errors mark, but that is still way behind the actual number. On the other hand, it may be worth it just to play it as is so I can see where the number ends up when using the updated set. Regardless, I am still thinking about it. More to come.

 

In conclusion, the secret is to not try and do all of these steps in one night. Pick a task, start on it, and finish it. Some of these took two+ weeks to complete, which is fine - I am not in a race - I am just working my way through my to-do-list. I do take a night or two off occasionally, enjoy it, and don’t let myself get burned out on it.

 

I consider all of this a normal level of obsessiveness. The nut of this is that once I get all of this work done upfront when it is time to play, I can just play. BBW does all of the stat work, ATMgr loads all of my as-played lineups for each game, and I can focus on the game at hand. And when that game is over, the next one loads up automatically and I am ready to go again.

 

Actually, there is one more non-baseball task yet to complete before I start playing games - the wife and I are taking a trip in mid-March to go see the grandkids for a week. The plan is to finish up all of the prep work before leaving, read through the aforementioned Guides while I am on vacation, and then kick off the 1911 replay upon my return in late March.

 

1911 Card Set - First Glance

I am preparing to do a 1911 BBW replay, so I recently purchased the 1911 card set and BBW disk. I made the mistake of ordering them right before Christmas - no holiday shipping horror stories here though - APBA processed my order immediately and it was delivered in about a week from Georgia to the Chicago area. The timing was probably a little shortsighted on my part, but it all worked out.

1911 is not advertised as a revised set, but it does state that all 535 players are carded. The cards do include all the Master Game ratings/symbols, plus I am positive this set had been run through the new algorithm's for pitcher’s grades, etc. Example: Buck O'Brien of the Red Sox made five starts, 47.2 innings, with an ERA of 0.38, and got a grade of A&B(XW) … which is definitely not an old school pitching grade. 

Defensive grades definitely took a hit:

 

Three C8's, 23 C7's

 

One 1B5 (Ed Konetchy), five 1B4's, 22 1B3's

 

One 2B9 (Eddie Collins), three 2B8's, ten 2B7's

 

Two 3B5's (Larry Gardner, Terry Turner), twelve 3B4's

 

Zero SS9's, seven SS8's

 

One OF3 (Chief Wilson w/39 Arm), 47 OF2's

 

The 1901 set gave all of the players two error numbers on their cards, and even though I added a third error number to half (by plate appearances) of the players I was still ended well below the actual number of errors. The 1901 set did have a normalized distribution of fielding ratings that we are all used to seeing, but 1911 is much tougher when it comes to assigning defensive ratings. For one thing, there are zero teams with a fielding one at both second base and shortstop, which may end up being more of a "runs scored" issue as opposed to a "total number of errors" issue. It may be difficult for some teams to ever be able to add up to a consistent fielding two team defense.

 

I am still contemplating adding a second error number to some of the 1911 cards. I am sure I will get the usual ~1.5 errors per game as I have with my other non-1901 replays, but that is still ~2.0 errors per game below what the actual number was.

 

In the 1949-R and 1957-3R set the fielder's arms averaged out to just above 30 and they do so as well in 1911 (30.6). Fourteen players have an arm rating of 26 or below, while eleven players are at 36 and above. The only one with an arm above 36 is Owen Wilson (Pittsburgh) with 39. Wilson is also the only OF3 in the set … APBA must have a historical liking for Pittsburgh right fielders.

 

There are a total of 67 players rated at catcher. Nineteen of them have a positive arm rating (+1 to +3 only). Six are at +0, while the remaining 42 catchers all having a negative arm rating, with the three catchers at -4 being the worst. So basically, each team, more or less, has a single quality "starting catcher" and then a bunch of backups, and there are certainly a bunch of backup catchers in this set.

 

The average of all the player's speed numbers comes out to 10.3, right in between 1 and 20. There are 14 players in the 1911 set with three 31's (H&R3) and there are 10 players with zero 31's (H&R0). I am not sure H&R0's existed before, but maybe I just don’t remember them. The average of all the H&R numbers comes out to 1.45, right in between 1 and 2, again, likely right where it should be.

 

I do like the revised sets. Most of the rough edges are sanded off, especially around the area of pitching grades, and all players are included. I have regraded pitchers and have manually created uncarded players previously, but my experience with other revised sets is that re-grading pitchers is no longer needed and again, all the players are carded.

 

Other notes:

 

Philadelphia (NL) utility player Jimmy Walsh is the only is the player to appear at every position, including pitcher and catcher.

 

Pittsburgh outfielder Jerry D'Arcy is carded as Jerry Dorsey. He is listed as D'Arcy in Baseball-Reference.com … I suspect this is a historical artifact that just never got corrected.

Lewis Oscar "Bull" Smith was carded with Washington for a one-game appearance (No AB), although BBR lists his final major league appearance was in 1906 ... I suspect this is a historical artifact that just never got corrected.

Johnny Priest and Guy Zinn were carded with the New York Giants (NYN) but should have been included with the New York Highlanders (NYA). They are on the right team on the disk. Honestly, if that is the worst mistake APBA ever makes then we are all in pretty good shape.

 

I was able to find and download both a Reach Guide and a Spalding Guide PDF for 1912 that covers the 1911 season. It is always interesting to see what tidbits you can glean while glancing through them plus it is a great way to pick up some of the flavor of the times.

 

Anyway, plenty left to do before I start playing games yet, and I see that Blogger still likes to do weird things with my basic text. More to come ...

1911 Replay Prep Work

As part of my upcoming 1911 APBA BBW replay it is necessary to get the blog started, so that is what I am doing now. Besides getting the blog established I want to put out an initial post, a placeholder if you will so that I can get in and play around with the layout, colors, etc.

It will likely be a couple of months yet before actual gameplay starts, but I will post occasional progress reports along the way, so stay tuned.

Previous Replays:

1901

1930

1949

1957